Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals

This paper examines the role of nonfundamentals‐based sentiment in house price dynamics, including the well‐documented volatility and persistence of house prices during booms and busts. To measure and isolate sentiment's effect, we employ survey‐based indicators that proxy for the sentiment of three major agents in housing markets: home buyers (demand side), home builders (supply side), and lenders (credit suppliers). After orthogonalizing each sentiment measure against a broad set of fundamental variables, we find strong and consistent evidence that the changing sentiment of all three sets of market participants predicts house price appreciation in subsequent quarters, above and beyond the impact of changes in lagged price changes, fundamentals, and market liquidity. More specifically, a one‐standard‐deviation shock to market sentiment is associated with a 32–57 basis point increase in real house price appreciation over the next two quarters. These price effects are large relative to the average real price appreciation of 71 basis points per quarter observed over the full sample period. Moreover, housing market sentiment and its effect on real house prices is highly persistent. The results also reveal that the dynamic relation between sentiment and house prices can create feedback effects that contribute to the persistence typically observed in house price movements during boom and bust cycles.     

Saving the Euro: Mitigating Financial or Trade Spillovers?

This paper analyzes through what channels the euro crisis affected firms and the efficacy of policies to mitigate the crisis. It analyzes stock price responses for 3,045 nonfinancial firms in 16 countries to four key policy events during 2010–11. Using precrisis benchmarks, it separates financial effects from trade effects and examines how bank and trade linkages propagated shocks. It finds that policy measures affected financially dependent firms more, particularly in creditor countries with greater bank exposure to peripheral euro countries, in statistically and economically significant ways. Trade linkages with peripheral countries played little role, although euro movements meant some differential effects.     

The Global Preference for Dividends in Declining Markets

Investors globally prefer dividend‐paying stocks over nondividend‐paying stocks more in declining than in advancing markets, even accounting for firm‐level growth opportunities, size and risk effects. Dividend‐paying stocks outperform nondividend‐paying stocks, from 0.63% (China) to 3.79% (Canada) more per month in declining than in advancing markets. In declining markets, dividend‐paying firms outperform by more than any underperformance in advancing markets. The results are robust across dividend taxation regimes, legal environments, emerging and developed markets, periods prior to and after the 2008 global financial crisis, the exclusion of the dividend declaration month and in respect to segmented or integrated international capital markets.     

钬掺杂铌酸锂晶体在550nm激发下紫外至紫光区域上转换发光研究

采用Czochralski法生长出一系列不同Ho3+（0.1,0.3,0.5 mol%）摩尔掺杂浓度的Ho：LiNbO3单晶。X射线衍射结果显示了Ho：LiNbO3晶体的结构特性。在550nm光源的激发下,在样品中检测到了由于3D3→5IJ(J=6和8)和5Gk→5I8(k=3,4,5和6)能级跃迁引起的紫外至紫光区域的上转换发光。交叉弛豫5G4+5I8→5F4/5S2+5I6导致了发光强度随着Ho3+掺杂浓度增加而减弱。晶体的紫外-可见光-进红外吸收光谱表明在Ho3+掺杂浓度为0.3mol%和0.5mol%时,Ho3+占据了LiNbO3晶体的Nb位。     

3PL参与下的存货质押融资协调与均衡策略

将第三方物流引入到具有随机需求的融资决策模型中,建立了一个包含融资企业、银行、第三方物流企业的质押融资模型。在成本加成定价法以及质押存储费用由银行与融资企业共同承担的条件下,运用经济博弈理论得出了该博弈的子博弈精炼纳什均衡解,并分析了质押存储费用的分配比例对质押融资决策模型收益的影响。结果表明,在随机需求条件下,银行承担的质押存储费用比例越高,融资决策模型中成员以及系统整体的收益也越高。     

旅游景区自助式数字解说模式初探

本文论述了利用游客自带的手机或其他数字语音播放设备以实现在景区旅游过程中的自助式数字解说的景区解说模式的可行性、优点及实现景区解说模式的其他关键技术和问题。为真正开展该景区解说模式的推广和普及工作做些基础性研究。     

外向型 3PL 企业物流人才培养的"反求"探讨

外向型第三方物流企业(3PL)在3PL企业中占了很大比例,是3PL企业的主要形式,这类3PL对物流人才的知识结构和能力素质要求有鲜明的特征,在确定物流人才培养方案时,如何满足外向型3PL企业对人才的要求自然就成为课程体系设置要解决的主要问题.本文提出了外向型3PL的概念,就3PL对物流人才的知识结构和能力素质要求进行了分析,然后利用“反求工程“原理对培养外向型3PL企业物流人才的课程体系设置进行了探讨.     

A Sticky Information Phillips Curve for South Africa

Mankiw and Reis propose the Sticky Information Phillips Curve (SIPC) as an alternative to the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve to address empirical shortcomings in the latter. A SIPC for South Africa is estimated, and we find estimates of information updating probability between 0.69 and 0.81, somewhat higher than suggested by methods using micro‐evidence. Because the estimation requires data on expectations of current period inflation and output gap conditional on sequences of earlier period information sets, we provide a detailed analysis of the impact on our estimates of alternative proxies available in South Africa.     

Is foreign direct investment a channel of knowledge spillovers? Evidence from Japan's FDI in the United States

Recent empirical work has examined the extent to which international trade fosters international “spillovers” of technological information. FDI is an alternate, potentially equally important channel for the mediation of such knowledge spillovers. I introduce a framework for measuring international knowledge spillovers at the firm level, and I use this framework to directly test the hypothesis that FDI is a channel of knowledge spillovers for Japanese multinationals undertaking direct investments in the United States. Using an original firm-level panel data set on Japanese firms' FDI and innovative activity, I find evidence that FDI increases the flow of knowledge spillovers both from and to the investing Japanese firms.     

纳米碳酸钙的应用技术

结合纳米碳酸钙的生产和应用实践经验,介绍了纳米碳酸钙在塑料、橡胶、涂料、黏胶剂、造纸、油墨等领域的重要作用、应用关键技术.